Something Thoughtful

 Nicholas Reid reflects in essay form on general matters and ideas related to literature, history, popular culture and the arts, or just life in general. You are free to agree or disagree with him.

                            BUT SURELY THESE THINGS DON’T HAPPEN NOW?!

 

 

            We didn’t think it could happen, did we? Wasn’t it all settled? The Berlin Wall came down. Francis Fukuyama said it was The End of History. Communism had definitively failed. Fascism in all its forms had long since been discredited. The only future was for all countries to become liberal democracies. Sure, there was China. But it was slowly going capitalist even if it still called itself Communist. And yes there were a few crazy rogue states like North Korea, but it was understood that under the impact of this global liberalisation, even such states would eventually bow to the inevitable. Besides, weren’t international platforms like Facebook and Youtube making it easier for the whole world to see the freedom and benefits of liberal democracies? Who could possibly turn against them?

It was easy to see the world this way, especially if you lived in Europe. Hadn’t the Cold War ended not with a bang but a whimper? The Soviet Union had collapsed from within. Gorbachev tried to reform Communism, but soon found that any real reform would make Communism disintegrate. Which it did. Some Soviet puppet dictators had to be overthrown by force, as in Rumania. But Russian Soviet armies retreated without a fight from all the Eastern European countries they had once intimidated – the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, what was then East Germany - even Ukraine and Belarus. The Cold War didn’t turn hot. The majority of Eastern European countries embraced liberal democracy.

In Russia itself, as it became the Russian Federation,  there seemed to be interesting experiments in true multi-party democracy.

Well okay, there was the rise of oligarchs – old apparatchiks who knew how to become billionaires by snapping up, at knock-down prices, national assets and enterprises.

Well okay, some of the new political parties in Russia seemed to be a sham, with bribed deputies complacently endorsing whatever the government said. And – oh dear! – genuine opposition parties were stifled and protests were always shut down… But the Russian Federation was new to democracy, wasn’t it? We couldn’t expect democracy to flourish at once. It took a long time, so let’s not criticise. Besides, weren’t Russians now free to drink Coca Cola and eat McDonalds? Surely they would fall in love with the West.

But what about this guy Putin? He was a bit of a problem. He’d had a leading opposition leader killed. He sent agents to England to kill two Russians who knew too much. He failed, but the warning was clear. He forced through a bill which effectively made him president for life. He was a nationalist of an extreme form.

But surely he wouldn’t go to war? That was unthinkable. Besides, in both Belarus and Ukraine, he had leaders who obeyed his autocratic whims. But in 2004-2005 Ukrainians were able to overturn a rigged election and have a genuine election which installed a democratic regime not as compliant as Putin wanted. And in 2014 Putin tore the Crimea from Ukraine and put more effort into arming ethnic Russians who lived in two south-east provinces of Ukraine.

But this didn’t concern us, did it? Ukraine was still there, even if a fifth of its territory had been taken from it. We shouldn’t make rash judgements, and we certainly don’t want to challenge Putin. That might start a war. Anyway, Ukraine was far away. Not really our concern.

Then the invasion began and our complacent vision collapsed.

Would any European leader dare to do such a thing, autocratic or not? Such actions belonged to an earlier era – an era our great-grandparents might remember – when Mussolini grabbed Abyssinia (Ethiopia) with no excuses. But the Second World War was long ago. The world order was settled. Imperialism was something that was decried. Surely these things don’t happen now?

Here’s the bitter lesson. They do and they can.

Step by step we see an old playbook being followed.

Item 1936: Hitler says “I’m only re-militarising the Rhineland and it’s part of Germany anyway.” “Um… okay”, say Britain and France a little uneasily. Item 2022: Putin says “You think I’m surrounding Ukraine with my armed forces? I’m only holding military exercises in my own territory.” “Um…okay “, say NATO countries a little uneasily.

Item 1938: Hitler says “I’m only interested in the Sudetenland where most people are ethnic Germans. I have no further territorial interests in Czechoslovakia.” “Um…okay,” say Britain and France, signing the paper in Munich. And in short order Hitler invades the rest of Czechoslovakia. Now Britain and France see Hitler for what he really is. Item 2022: Putin says “I’m only interested in Ukraine’s Donbas region where most of the population are ethnic Russians.” This sounds sort of plausible to some NATO members. And in short order Putin attempts to invade the rest of Ukraine with overwhelming force. Now NATO sees Putin for what he really is.

Item 1939: Hitler and Stalin stitch up a deal. Hitler’s propaganda machine fakes an incident on the border to “prove” that Poland is being aggressive and threatening war. Films are made by Goebbels showing this Polish “aggression”. So Hitler invades Poland from the West and Stalin invades Poland from the East. Item 2022: While his forces are bombing civilian targets and forcing millions of Ukrainians to flee, Putin’s propaganda machine is telling the Russian people that Ukraine is being “liberated” from fascists and besides, the whole war is the fault of Ukraine because they have secret laboratories making chemical weapons.

Are these comparisons forced and unreal? I don’t think so.

As Hitler threatened all Europe with sheer military might, so Putin declares to the world that he has put his nuclear weapons on alert. The threat is obvious. “Challenge me and I am willing to start a massive world war.”

Where does this madness come from? Is the autocrat fuelled by humiliation? The old KGB man is unreconciled to the loss of Soviet power and the “defeat” of the Soviet Union in the Cold War in exactly the same way that the former corporal Hitler was humiliated by Germany’s defeat in the First World War. Hitler wanted to rebuild the Reich (Empire) and grab back all the lands that were now independent of Germany. Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Empire even if it’s given a different name.

Any simple lesson to be drawn from all this?

Only that there will always be demagogues eager for power. Only that such leaders can impose misery on the world. Only that liberalisation of the world is not inevitable. Only that human nature doesn’t change.

I’m sorry to have to tell you this.